No Exit Strategy: Burma's Endless Crisis and America's Limited Options

2025-11-19

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Summary

This meeting of the Subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific and the Subcommittee on South and Central Asia addressed the multifaceted crisis in Burma, focusing on the humanitarian catastrophe, the upcoming sham elections, the proliferation of scam centers, and the dire situation facing the Rohingya community. Speakers emphasized the urgency of a thorough re-evaluation of United States policy towards Burma given its impact on American interests and regional stability. [ 00:13:34 ]

[ 00:15:21-00:16:00 ]

Themes

The Protracted Crisis in Burma

Burma is described as a failed state grappling with widespread poverty, with nearly half its population displaced or having fled the country. [ 00:14:01 ]

Following the 2021 military coup, the junta has engaged in a brutal counterinsurgency campaign, leading to thousands of civilian deaths, mass imprisonment of political opponents, and destruction of homes and infrastructure. [ 00:45:10 ] Despite resistance forces achieving notable successes and controlling a significant portion of the country, the junta remains resilient, fueled by external support and internal conflict economies. [ 00:14:05 ]

Illegitimate Elections and Democratic Backsliding

The Burmese military junta plans to hold sham elections in December 2025 (December 28th), which are widely condemned as predetermined and designed to legitimize authoritarian control. [ 00:14:17 ]

These elections are viewed as neither free nor fair, with political parties dissolved and dissent suppressed. The United States is urged to categorically reject these elections and encourage allies to do the same, as they are not a path to democracy or a peaceful resolution. [ 00:47:31 ] China's public backing of these elections and its pressure on ASEAN nations to recognize them were highlighted as significant concerns.

Scam Centers, Fentanyl, and National Security

Burma has become a hub for organized crime, particularly scam centers that prey on individuals globally, including Americans. [ 00:14:01 ]

[ 00:15:34 ] These scamming networks, often backed by Chinese criminal syndicates, generate billions of dollars annually, funding both transnational criminal organizations and the military junta. [ 00:15:37 ] There are strong links between these scam centers, human trafficking, money laundering, and Mexican cartels involved in fentanyl production, posing a direct national security threat to the United States. Recent crackdowns by the junta on these operations are largely viewed as performative, designed to give an impression of action without genuinely disrupting the illicit activities that benefit the regime. [ 02:03:59 ]

The Rohingya Refugee Crisis and Humanitarian Aid Shortfalls

The Rohingya community faces ongoing genocidal violence, forcing over 1.3 million to seek refuge in Bangladesh, creating the world's largest refugee encampment. [ 00:27:49 ]

As stateless people, Rohingya refugees lack basic rights, including work and movement, leading to severe deprivation, insecurity, and vulnerability to trafficking and gender-based violence within the camps. [ 00:28:04 ] Funding cuts to humanitarian assistance by the US and other nations have exacerbated the crisis, reducing food rations and leading to the closure of essential services like health clinics and learning centers. Continued US leadership, sustained funding, and support for livelihood and educational opportunities for refugees, along with safe repatriation conditions, are crucial.

China's Dominance and US Strategic Response

China's influence in Burma is significant, with Beijing aiming for a weak, divided, and dependent state to advance its geostrategic and economic interests, particularly access to rare earths and the Indian Ocean via infrastructure projects like the Kyaukpyu Deepwater Port. [ 01:48:32 ]

China supplies the junta with military aid and surveillance technology, while also leveraging ethnic armed groups. [ 00:14:30 ] The US should counter this influence by rejecting illegitimate elections, imposing targeted sanctions on entities supporting the junta, and bolstering democratic resistance actors. [ 00:49:47 ] A clear, consistent, and long-term US policy, potentially led by a senior special envoy for Burma, is needed to navigate the complex regional dynamics and maximize engagement with allies and partners like Thailand and India. [ 01:58:42 ]

Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) in Burma

The Women, Peace, and Security Act of 2017 underscores the vital role of women in global security and peace efforts. [ 01:36:43 ]

In Burma, women like Lucky Karim are actively involved in the resistance, building governance structures, and protecting communities, often on the front lines of the struggle. [ 01:38:18 ] [ 01:38:28 ] Concerns were raised about the current administration's failure to uphold WPS commitments, including lapses in reporting, termination of key programs, and elimination of positions dedicated to implementing the law.

Tone of the Meeting

The tone of the meeting was serious, concerned, and urgent, reflecting the gravity of the humanitarian and political crisis in Burma. [ 00:13:31 ] [ 01:08:08 ]

Members expressed dismay over the ongoing violence, the plight of the Rohingya, and the cynical nature of the sham elections. [ 01:08:14 ] [ 01:08:21 ] [ 00:14:17 ] There was a strong bipartisan consensus on the need for American leadership and a more coherent, strategic US policy to address the crisis effectively. [ 00:27:39 ] [ 01:59:47 ] Despite the dire circumstances, a determined and hopeful sentiment emerged regarding the potential for positive outcomes through sustained engagement and targeted actions. [ 00:33:29 ]