After Assad: The Future of Syria

House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism

2025-06-05

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Source: Congress.gov

Summary

This hearing focused on assessing U.S. national security interests in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad and discussing potential policy options [ 00:15:03 ]

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. The U.S. faces a critical "turning point" in Syria, with the rise of new interim authorities led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), presenting both significant risks and opportunities for change in the region [ 00:15:18 ]

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. Discussions highlighted the need for careful U.S. engagement to navigate reconstruction, counterterrorism, and regional power dynamics, emphasizing that what happens in Syria has far-reaching implications [ 00:17:58 ]

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Themes

U.S. Engagement and Sanctions Policy

The U.S. has begun to lift certain sanctions on Syria, including General License 25 and a 180-day waiver on Caesar Act sanctions, to give the new government a chance [ 00:18:51 ]

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. This move is seen as a "less bad decision" but has also raised concerns about ceding U.S. leverage . There is a call for a clear, conditions-based sanctions relief policy with specific timelines and metrics to guide future engagement . Congress is urged to establish clear priorities for U.S.-Syrian relationships, as the current administration is perceived to lack a coherent strategy . Continued U.S. diplomatic support and engagement are considered crucial for Syria's stability and economic recovery .

Regional Instability and Foreign Influence

Syria's strategic importance makes it a target for external powers, with Russia seeking to maintain a foothold to project power into the Middle East, Africa, and Europe [ 00:17:44 ]

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. Russia aims to leverage economic influence and portray itself as a protector of minorities to solidify its presence . Iran and its proxies continue to use Syria as a sanctuary and transit route for attacks, including against Israel [ 00:17:44 ]

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. Turkey maintains significant influence, particularly with the current Syrian rulers (HTS), and views Syrian reconstruction as a security imperative and business opportunity . Israel, concerned by jihadi elements and Iranian activity, is creating a buffer zone along the Syrian border . The risk of Syria becoming a battleground for regional proxy wars is significant, requiring the U.S. to ensure Russia does not reestablish control .

Counterterrorism and Governance in New Syria

A central U.S. interest remains the counter-ISIS mission, requiring cooperation from the interim authorities to prevent resurgence and manage detention centers holding thousands of ISIS members [ 00:17:13 ]

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. Concerns persist regarding Ahmed al-Sharah, the interim president and former al-Qaeda affiliate, and his ability to deliver on promises of reform [ 00:17:00 ]

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. The integration of some 3,500 foreign fighters into the Syrian military raises questions about discipline and accountability . Speakers emphasized the importance of inclusive governance, the protection of minority rights (Kurds, Druze, Christians), and establishing a positive working relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces [ 00:18:24 ]

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. The new regime also needs to address the issue of chemical weapons stockpiles and prevent extremism from thriving [ 00:18:08 ]

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Tone

The meeting conveyed a tone of cautious optimism regarding the opportunities presented by Assad's fall, balanced with significant concern and skepticism about the future of Syria [ 00:19:56 ]

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. Speakers expressed hope that the U.S. can help steer Syria towards stability, but also voiced deep distrust of the new leadership and regional actors like Russia and Iran [ 01:08:21 ]

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. There was a strong sense of urgency, with multiple mentions of a rapidly closing "window of opportunity" for effective U.S. policy [ 00:25:59 ]

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. The discussion frequently returned to the imperative of protecting U.S. national security interests and ensuring a consistent, clear strategy to prevent the country from reverting to instability or becoming a battleground for proxy wars [ 00:16:35 ]

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Participants

Transcript

The subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa will come to order.  The purpose of this hearing is to assess U.S.  national security interests as relates to Syria and discuss potential policy options to further them.  I now recognize myself to give an opening statement.   Syria is at a turning point.  The fall of Bashar al-Assad this past December following four decades of authoritarian rule has created conditions for unprecedented change for Syria   and four, the Middle East.  This change comes with significant risk.  The Syrian war, dating back to 2011, has left most of the country in ruins, destroyed by years of indiscriminate bombing by Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers.  The costs of reconstructing this broken country   will be in the tens of billions, even by the most modest assessment.  And investors face significant hurdles as they work to navigate the complex sanctions regime that has emerged after four decades of Assad family rule.  While there are rightfully many who seek to break down barriers, advocating for sanctions relief to ensure reconstruction can take place and put Syria on a path of success, we must not lose sight of core US interests in this rush to embrace Syria's new regime.   There remain significant questions about Syria's new interim authorities led by U.S.  designated foreign terrorist organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, Ahmed al-Sharah.   Despite his hardened past, the interim president continues to verbally signal a commitment to reform, though his ability to deliver remains to be seen, which is why we must be explicit with our goals for Syria.  This includes the counter-ISIS mission, which has been a central part of U.S.  foreign policy since 2014.
We must set clear expectations for the interim authorities on what we expect from them with respect to counterterrorism cooperation to prevent a resurgence and assume responsibility for detention centers holding thousands of ISIS members and affiliated individuals in the Northeast.   And concerns about extremism are not, by any means, limited to ISIS.  Iran and its proxies have long used the country as a sanctuary space to plan and carry out attacks, including against Israel, while Russia sees Syria as a strategic launch pad to undermine our interests not just in the Middle East, but much further afield from Africa to Europe.   There must be clear red lines when it comes to Iran and its proxies, as well as Russia's ability to operate in Syria.  Preventing Syria from being used as a sanctuary space is vital not just for the US, but also for Syria.   This will no doubt be one of the metrics used as the international community measures the success of Syria's transition and by extension for the prospects for further economic relief.  For Syria to succeed and reestablish itself on the international world stage, it must take action to prevent extremism from thriving once again.   including by signaling a commitment to inclusive governance by establishing a positive working relationship with our Kurdish partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces.  They have been at the forefront of the campaign to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.   On that basis, the Trump administration has rightfully taken steps to waive U.S.  sanctions on a limited and temporary basis, giving al-Sharah sufficient time to demonstrate he is able to turn his words into actions.   But this is not, I have to stress, a full embrace of al-Sharah or those he continues to surround himself with.
We must use this opportunity to press him on key U.S.  priorities, notably as relates to counterterrorism, while also retaining limitations on U.S.  sanctions relief to ensure Iran and Russia cannot benefit financially.   Al-Sharah has expressed a concerning willingness to embrace Moscow despite Putin's complicity in war crimes against the Syrian people.  For Russia, their presence in Syria is not just about the Middle East.  It's a vital staging ground essential to everything they do in Africa and eastern Mediterranean.  We underestimate the strategic importance Syria holds for the Russians at our own peril.   Make no mistake, what happens in Syria does not stay in Syria.  The country has consistently demonstrated its ability to impact and shape affairs far outside its borders, from Europe's migrant crisis, to ISIS, to the war in Ukraine.  When Secretary Rubio testified before Congress last month, he said, quote, there is no guarantee that by outreach and working with the transitional authority in Syria, things are going to work out.  It may work out.   It may not work out, but if we don't reach out and try, it's a guarantee not to work out.  And I echo the Secretary's sentiments and just came back along with the ranking member from a trip to the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Jordan.  And that was the sentiment shared there as well.  We want to give this an opportunity to work, but are fully cognizant   of the consequences of failure here.  During this hearing, we will further examine Syrian stability and the vital role Syria and the Syrian people play in the Middle East.  I now yield to the ranking member, Hashila Shirfalis-McCormick, for her opening statements.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for convening this important hearing on developments in Syria following the fall of the brutal Assad regime.  I welcome our expert panelists for this afternoon, all who have robust knowledge of Syria, the broader Middle East, and core U.S.

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