Deterrence Amid Rising Tensions: Preventing CCP Aggression on Taiwan

Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party

2025-05-15

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Summary

The meeting focused on the critical and urgent need to deter Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aggression against Taiwan, emphasizing both military and non-military threats . Speakers highlighted the CCP's stated goal to be ready to take Taiwan by force by 2027, underscoring a narrowing window for strategic intervention and preparedness . The discussion covered a range of deterrence strategies, the importance of alliances, and domestic challenges facing the United States.

Themes

The Threat of CCP Aggression and Urgency

The CCP's directive to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027, supported by a massive military buildup, creates a critical, near-term threat . This timeframe suggests the current Congress may be the last full legislative session to influence China's calculus, demanding immediate action to address gaps in defense capabilities . Beyond direct military invasion, speakers warned of a "most likely scenario" involving comprehensive, cyber-enabled economic warfare campaigns, blockades, and disinformation aimed at eroding Taiwan's societal resilience without open conflict . This "operational preparation of the battlefield" by pre-positioning cyber capabilities in US critical infrastructure is a significant concern [ 03:47:24 ]

Deterrence Strategies (Military)

Effective deterrence requires a robust land power strategy, as the PLA Army is deemed the decisive force for any invasion . Deploying mobile ground-based strike systems like Typhon and HIMARS is crucial to disrupt PLA planning and decision-making [ 04:13:54 ]

. The US Army's multi-domain task forces, integrating sensing, cyber, AI, and fires, are vital for operational command and control . Sustained logistics, medical support, and prepositioned equipment are essential for operational endurance, requiring the Army's unique capabilities . The consensus is that the US industrial base needs significant, accelerated investment in precision munitions and shipbuilding to keep pace with China's rapid advancements .

Deterrence Strategies (Cyber & Economic)

Protecting US critical infrastructure, particularly in rail, aviation, and port sectors, is essential to ensure American military mobility and readiness during a conflict . The National Guard was identified as a key asset for defending these critical systems against cyber threats . Economic deterrence involves pre-approved financial sanctions and embargoes against China that would impose significant economic pain, thus altering Beijing's risk calculations [ 03:21:41-03:22:09 ]

. Strengthening economic ties with Taiwan, such as investments in semiconductor manufacturing, serves as a powerful deterrent and bolsters US prosperity and security [ 02:06:26-02:06:48 ] [ 03:28:11 ] . Eliminating double taxation between the US and Taiwan is also critical to deepening this economic partnership .

Taiwan's Role and Capabilities

Taiwan must significantly strengthen its self-defense capabilities by increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP immediately and to 5% by 2028 . These investments should focus on counter-intervention ground forces and air/naval capabilities to counter both invasion and blockade scenarios . Enhancing Taiwan's societal resilience against cyber and economic pressure campaigns, including strengthening information operations and energy security, is also vital . Stockpiling essential goods like natural gas is key to deterring blockades . A substantial increase in US military training teams in Taiwan is required to enhance preparedness and interoperability .

Allies and Partnerships

The US cannot deter China alone and requires deeper military and strategic integration with regional allies, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, India, and Vietnam . Integrating allied armies into an "Indo-Pacific land power network" is seen as a force multiplier for deterrence . The growing military and technological partnership between Russia and China, including in areas like hypersonics, poses a significant, interconnected threat to global stability . Despite military-to-military strengthening, concerns persist among some US allies about the consistency of American commitment and dependability [ 03:06:00 ]

US Domestic Challenges

The United States faces critical vulnerabilities in its domestic industrial base, particularly in rare earth elements, critical minerals, and manufacturing capacity, which are overshadowed by China's dominance in areas like shipbuilding and drone production . These dependencies, coupled with a potential lag in autonomous warfare technology, lead to concerns that the US is "catastrophically unprepared" for strategic competition with China . The issue of tech piracy by foreign students in US academic programs is also highlighted as a threat to technological leadership . Unpredictable US tariff policies are criticized for potentially causing inflation domestically and eroding trust among global allies, undermining efforts to build stable economic partnerships [ 03:29:49-03:30:09 ]

Tone of the Meeting

The tone of the meeting was notably serious and urgent, reflecting a shared concern among speakers about the escalating threat of CCP aggression against Taiwan . There was a strong emphasis on the rapidly closing window for effective deterrence and the need for immediate, decisive action across military, cyber, and economic domains . Despite the gravity of the topic, the discussion maintained a bipartisan and cooperative approach, focusing on pragmatic solutions and preventative measures rather than advocating for war .